Leading economists have tamped down expectations of imminent interest rate cuts, with several warning they are unlikely before late this year at the earliest.
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While the Reserve Bank of Australia board is widely expected to leave its official cash rate on hold on Tuesday, several economists warn that hopes of a rate cut in the next few months are overblown.
The most common view among the nine economists sitting on the Australian National University's RBA shadow board is the official cash rate will remain at 4.35 per cent for at least the next six months as the central bank tries to ensure inflation continues to recede without triggering widespread job losses.
More promisingly for borrowers, the shadow board thinks there is a 60 per cent chance that the appropriate rate will be lower this time next year.
Shadow board chair, ANU economist Timo Henckel, said the Reserve Bank would likely delay any easing of monetary policy until it is confident inflation pressures are waning.
Dr Henckel said wage growth data due out later this month could be "quite key" because of the insight they might provide into inflation expectations.
"If wages growth remains comfortable and we maybe get another docile reading on monthly inflation, then they can be a bit more comfortable in signalling that we have peaked [on interest rates]," he said.
Prominent economist Chris Richardson does not expect rate cuts before late this year, and HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham warned that, without an improvement in productivity, "rate cuts may be a distant prospect".
"The market is all a-flurry with excitement about the prospect of ... rate cuts," Mr Bloxham said. "We suggest RBA observers should cool their engines."
EY chief economist Cherelle Murphy was also skeptical that any easing of monetary policy would happen soon.
While recent data showed that inflation was "coming down nicely", Ms Murphy warned that did not necessarily mean it would keep slowing.
The EY economist said factors including ongoing tightness in the local housing and labour markets, along with rising global shipping costs and further disruptions in the Middle East, posed risks to the outlook.
She said the RBA would be keen to avoid prematurely cutting rates and then having to reverse course because of the "horrendous" blow that would deliver to its credibility.
The central bank will delay any policy easing until there is evidence that not only is inflation under control but conditions in the tight labour market are "turning".
There is still little sign that demand for workers is easing significantly.
The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 per cent late last year and the ANZ-Indeed job ads index rose 1.7 per cent last month, indicating that the market for skills remains strong.
ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said a 13 per cent drop in the index in the past year showed the jobs market was cooling.
But the index remains almost 40 per cent higher than it was before the pandemic, and "we do not expect to see a significant downturn any time soon," Ms Dunk said.
How the Reserve Bank views the outlook for growth, inflation and employment will become clearer on Tuesday when it releases its latest quarterly forecasts.
Economists expect they will show the central bank's inflation concerns are easing and that unemployment may not increase as rapidly as previously expected.
RBA governor Michele Bullock is also set to be grilled on the central bank's analysis, including its assessment of the inflationary impact of the government's revised tax cuts, when who holds her first post-meeting media conference on Tuesday and appears before a parliamentary committee on Friday.