The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is predicting Australia is increasingly likely to enter into a La Nina weather pattern in the coming months.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
BOM raised its El Nino-Southern Oscillation Outlook to La Nina Alert status on Tuesday, August 18, indicating the chance of a La Nina occurring this year now sits at 70 per cent, approximately three times more likely than usual.
You may also like: Boat capsizes off Elizabeth Beach
BOM's climate operations manager, Dr Andrew Watkins, said La Nina typically leads to above average rainfall through winter and spring across the eastern, central and northern regions of Australia.
"It typically also brings cooler and cloudier days, more tropical cyclones, and an earlier onset of the first rains of the wet season across the north," Dr Watkins said.
"The cooling of surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and an increase in the strength of the Pacific trade winds indicates the chance of La Nina has risen. When these two changes occur at the same time, at this time of year, we see a greatly increased chance of a La Nina forming and persisting through spring."
Dr Watkins said current climate models suggested that further ocean cooling and the intensification of trade winds were increasingly likely in the months ahead, which had triggered the BOM's upgrade from La Nina Watch to La Nina Alert.
You may also like: Improvements for Forster Ocean Baths
A significant La Nina event was last experienced in Australia in 2010-2011, leading to the country's wettest two-year period on record.
La Nina episodes typically last for around nine to 12 months at a time, however prolonged events can last for years.
The Pacific Ocean last approached La Nina conditions in late 2017, but a La Nina episode did not eventuate.
Many parts of the Mid Coast have already received more than 1000mm of rain in 2020, which is significantly higher than the total rainfall received across the region in 2019, during the Mid Coast's worst ever drought.
Thank you for valuing local journalism with your subscription. While you're with us, you can also receive updates straight to your inbox from the Great Lakes Advocate. To make sure you're up to date with all the news, sign up here.
