When will EVs actually become more common than internal combustion engines vehicles on our roads?

Australians consumed 15,500 megalitres (one megalitre is one million litres) of automotive petrol in 2021 plus another 30,946ML of automotive diesel.

Add aviation fuels, LPG and other related products and the total consumption for 2021 was 53,572ML. Fuel retailing is a $40 billion industry in Australia.

Ampol CEO, Matt Halliday in the company's annual report said he believes oil-derived fuel will still comprise 90 per cent of road transport energy requirements by 2030.

Ampol reveals that the company sees its future in supplying hydrogen mobility.

BEV sales (including Tesla) grew 332 per cent to 17,293 units in 2021.

Working on a scenario calculated by journalist Glen Butler: Let's assume that once BEVs reach 100,000 sales per year, their year on year growth is a more realistic 25 per cent, not 300 per cent.

At that rate, BEVs will breach 1.1 million annual sales in 2036, and satisfy 90 per cent of our nation's transport needs by 2068.

It will take until 2044 for EVs to outnumber internal combustion engine vehicles on our roads. Twenty two years.

And even then there will still be fifteen million ICE vehicles in need of fuel - just 25 per cent less than today's market size.

More infrastructure (recharging stations), quicker recharging and longer life batteries will see EVs become more and more viable

So what do we make of all these considerations, scenarios and feet pondering? EVs are probably on the way to domination but other fuel sources such as hydrogen and even nuclear could evolve to a degree to be viable alternatives.

The future will hold surprises.

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