As the Mid Coast LGA continues to experience its worst drought on record, the subject of rain and when it will arrive takes on an ever-increasing significance among the region's residents.
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Sudden and short-lived downpours give rise to momentary excitement but do little to ease the ongoing water shortages and fire threat.
A brief shower on the evening of January 1 resulted in a total of 1.5mm of rain at Tuncurry, 0.5mm at Nabiac, and according to a comment on Facebook community page Hallidays Point News and Chat, 2mm at Diamond Beach.
Barrington and Mount George fared slightly better, receiving 7mm and 6.5mm respectively.
At most other Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) stations around the Mid Coast, 0mm was recorded.
So when will significant rain arrive and what is it going to take to deliver the region from its current situation?
According to the BOM, the outlook is better than it has been but possibly not as good as we need it to be.
Senior climatologist, Robyn Duell, in a video issued on December 19 covering the climate and water outlook for January to March, said the key drivers of the hot and dry conditions through 2019 - the Positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a negative Southern Annular Mode - would start to weaken through the first quarter of 2020.
However, both days and nights during the same period are likely to remain warmer than average, which will see the ongoing threat of bushfires and heatwave conditions.
In relation to rainfall specifically, the BOM is currently predicting a neutral climate outlook, which means an equal chance of receiving above- or below-average rainfall over the coming season.
Between 200-300mm is predicted across the Mid Coast over the next three months, with between 25-100mm predicted for the month of January.
Rainfall for this month is forecast to be more significant in inland areas than along the coast.
In terms of when rain will start to fall, the BOM's outlook suggests we can expect weekly averages of between 0-10mm throughout January, starting from the period of January 4 to 10.
Unfortunately, and perhaps most concerningly, despite the improved outlook over the coming months, the BOM suggests the rainfall the region is predicted to receive may not be enough to deliver it (and other drought-affected regions around the country) from the current situation it finds itself in.
"While outlooks for drier than average conditions ease heading into 2020, several months of above average rainfall would be needed to see a recovery from current long-term rainfall deficiencies," a statement on the website said.
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