To ensure fair and proportional representation across regions in federal parliament’s House of Representatives, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has calculated the average number of voters required in any electorate needs to be within 3.5 per cent of 110 542 voters, based on future projections of enrolments.

 In last week’s redistribution announcement by the AEC, the committee confirmed that Lyne’s boundaries would shift significantly with the “consequential decrease in the proposed Division of Paterson”, which currently encompasses up to the Great Lakes. It also acknowledged the inclusion of the major mid north coast centres of Port Macquarie (formerly of Lyne) and Coffs Harbour into the same electoral division of Cowper.

Explaining its reasoning, it pointed to the Electoral Act’s “numerical requirements and obligations relating to community of interests, means of communication and travel, the physical features and area of the proposed electoral division and the boundaries of existing electoral divisions.” 

It quoted a ‘push’ towards the Hunter Valley region by the existing electoral divisions to its north and south, and so abolished the existing seat of Hunter (but renamed the seat of Charlton, ‘Hunter’) to enable it to spread the numbers around. 

This in turn meant shuffling Lyne’s boundaries further south so that by 2019 more than 16,000 km2 will house 107,098 anticipated voters instead of 99,398 as the boundaries currently sit. This will enable Lyne, currently held by Nationals member David Gillespie, to “fall within the acceptable numerical tolerances.’

So by taking a little bit from here and giving a little bit from there, Lyne will gain 44,724 voters from the seat of Paterson - including Dungog, Great Lakes, parts of Maitland and the Port Stephens local government area. 

By the same token, Lyne’s neighbouring seat of Cowper to the north needs more voters too. 

So Lyne will in turn give up areas south of Kempsey to Port Macquarie, giving Cowper – 37, 024 electors to be exact – what it needs for proportional representation into the future.

Similarly, the seat of Paterson, currently held by Liberals member Bob Baldwin, will change from 99, 749 projected voters to 109, 455 within a 1,124 km2 radius by absorbing seats mostly westward of its current boundaries. 

 The reshuffle is designed to build the seat of Lyne with what the Electoral Committee deems to be ‘communities of interest’ south of Taree and Gloucester (both of which are already within Lyne’s boundaries). The new boundaries will be formally gazetted on February 25.

Federal members respond to redistribution:

“The last time I spoke about this [the redistribution] I said it had come as a shock,” federal member for Lyne David Gillespie admitted. He has since adjusted his thinking when he realised that most of the current 48 electoral divisions across Australia had experienced change (according to the AEC, only one division remains unchanged). 

 “It’s a new expanded boundary that I’ll be responsible for, but I’ve been up here on the coast for 23 years.  I know Forster Tuncurry well. “

Hailing from near Wauchope, Dr Gillespie cited the region’s demographic similarities alongside his current electorate, with a high proportion of pensioners, retirees, families, tourists and aged care and health needs. 

“I’m used to representing areas like this, and I’m looking forward to the honour and challenge of representing a larger area,” he said, referring to his “geographically beautiful” expanded electorate.

Unfazed by the challenge of prioritising across such a large area (just over 16,000kms), he pointed to parliamentary colleagues who lead regions the “size of Germany” without any conflict.

“I’ve just turned over 100,000kms in my car over two years. I’m used to doing a lot of miles. It’s a busy day when you’re a regional representative,” he said.

Responding to the confirmed reshuffle, Mr Baldwin enigmatically issued a statement last week declaring “I am not making any comment at the moment on the Federal Redistribution.”

“I am speaking with colleagues and the Liberal Party and will make a determination in due time. I will not be making any comment until I have made my decision,” he added.

The statement about a no-statement incurred several tweets, including one from Newcastle Herald writer Dan Proudman.

“So Bob has released a statement to say he won’t be making a statement. Get me a beer, this is doing my head in.”